The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future by Step

Description: The Next Age of Uncertainty by Stephen Poloz *WINNER OF THE 2023 NATIONAL BUSINESS BOOK AWARD**FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD**SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING**SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE*NATIONAL BESTSELLERFrom the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead.The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them.These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain.The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them. Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth.Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead. FORMAT Hardcover LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Author Biography STEPHEN POLOZ is one of the worlds foremost economists with over 40 years of experience in economic and investment research, forecasting, banking, and policymaking, including seven years as Governor of the Bank of Canada. Today, he is a Special Advisor for Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, a corporate director, and Chair of the Advisory Board of the Lawrence National Centre, Ivey School of Business, Western University. He is a sought-after speaker for business and investor audiences and is quoted frequently in the news media. Poloz was named an Officer of the Order of Canada in 2024. Review *WINNER OF THE 2023 NATIONAL BUSINESS BOOK AWARD**FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD**SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE*Praise for The Next Age of Uncertainty:"Engaging and infused with humour, The Next Age of Uncertainty is a breakdown of economic chokepoints by a former Bank of Canada governor who isnt afraid to let his personality shine. Stephen Poloz has crafted a timely and eminently readable examination and explanation of the major issues that will define monetary policy and its impact on Canadians wallets for years to come. If knowledge is power, those who plan for and want to understand the potentially shaky ground ahead would be well-armed with Polozs take on the future landscape." —Shaughnessy Cohen Prize jury "There are powerful forces at work that will influence how we live and invest in the years to come. In The Next Age of Uncertainty, Stephen Poloz not only describes what those forces are, but draws a precise road-map for navigating them. The Next Age of Uncertainty isnt just a book for economists, its a book for anyone who wants to make better decisions." —Amanda Lang, Anchor, BNN Bloomberg and national bestselling author of The Power of Why and The Beauty of Discomfort "Stephen Poloz is as classic a Canadian success story as you are likely to find. Rising from middle-class roots in Oshawa to becoming Governor of the Bank of Canada, he has amassed a wealth of experience on how to navigate challenging economic times. In his book, The Next Age of Uncertainty, Poloz distills his four decades of economic and leadership experience to a series of essential insights about how the economy works and where it might go. Using his trademark blend of analysis, anecdote, and humor, this book will become required reading for anyone interested in the forces shaping our collective economic future." —David Detomasi, Distinguished Faculty Fellow of International Business, Smith School of Business, and Academic Director, School of Policy Studies, Queens University, author of Profits and Power: Navigating the Politics and Geopolitics of Oil "Stephen Poloz is one of the most experienced economists, who has never lost touch with the world around him. In The Next Age of Uncertainty he gives an ingenious yet humble account of the economic forces that will define our future and our everyday decisions. Having lived through the major economic crises of the past decades, Stephen brilliantly connects the past with the future and economic theory with real life and personal anecdotes. It is this all-embracing approach that makes this book a fascinating read, not just for policymakers but for everybody who wants to understand what the future holds."—Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund"Stephen Polozs The Next Age of Uncertainty combines invaluable historical insights with provocative reflections on the economy of the future—a must read for policy makers wishing to avoid the mistakes of the past and facing the tectonic forces sweeping Canada and the world." —Thomas dAquino C.M., LL.D., founding CEO of the Business Council of Canada, and author of Private Power, Public Purpose: Adventures in Business, Politics, and the Arts"[The Next Age of Uncertainty] calls on business to do what politicians wont: Save the economy. . . . Theres plenty in Polozs book that ought to keep Canadas leaders awake at night. He sees five meta-trends that are about to collide in potentially violent ways that will reshape the economy and society, just like tectonic plates have been reshaping Earth for millennia." —Financial Post"[A]n indispensable guide." —Next Big Idea Club"[O]ne of the best political books in the country." —The Hill Times"[This is] what Im reading this summer." —François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of innovation, science, and industry, Government of Canada Review Quote Praise for The Next Age of Uncertainty : "Stephen Poloz is one of the most experienced economists, who has never lost touch with the world around him. In The Next Age of Uncertainty he gives an ingenious yet humble account of the economic forces that will define our future and our everyday decisions. Having lived through the major economic crises of the past decades, Stephen brilliantly connects the past with the future and economic theory with real life and personal anecdotes. It is this all-embracing approach that makes this book a fascinating read, not just for policymakers but for everybody who wants to understand what the future holds." --Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Excerpt from Book INTRODUCTION Uncertainty is everywhere, but especially when it comes to the economy. Concerned that the weather might disrupt weekend plans? Theres an app for that. But theres no app for the uncertainty that really counts. Is my job secure? Will I earn more next year? Can I afford to purchase a home? Will I ever be able to afford one? Is now the right time to buy? Is the money I have set aside for a down payment growing? Is the stock market about to collapse? What will the interest rate be when I renew my mortgage? Should I renew for a short or long term? How long will I live--will I have enough savings for my retirement? And why is the price of gasoline so high this week, by the way? These questions pertain to important personal life decisions that have long-term consequences. We all live in the economy. These everyday questions are difficult enough for individuals, but they are even harder for companies, which have more factors in play. Indeed, the quality of their decisions will determine not only their future but also whether you do still have a job tomorrow. To maintain a viable business that offers secure employment and ongoing profitability, companies must make forecasts about future economic trends such as sales, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. They translate those estimates into a business plan that covers hiring, orders for raw materials, equipment purchases, expansion plans, and so on. They also must develop a corresponding financial plan, supported by a bank and perhaps public equity or bond markets. In short, employers and employees face the same economic uncertainties together. Economic growth versus recession, the rate of inflation, the level of interest rates, the exchange rate, the stock market, job creation or cutbacks, salary levels, the state of the housing market, prospects for government spending and taxes, and so on--it matters to us all. From the street level, some macroeconomic concepts may seem abstract, but they are ingredients in all of our major economic decisions: whether to work and where, where to live and how, what to buy and when, when to borrow and how much, when to hire and when to fire, and when to take a chance and expand the business. Economics is the air we all breathe and the water we all swim in. You dont need an economist to tell you that economic instability has risen in recent years. That means it is becoming a lot harder to make plans for the future. The question often posed is whether things will ever return to normal. The book-long answer to that question is that "normal" is not what most of us think it is. The short answer is we should expect even more volatility in the years ahead, not less. A future with greater economic volatility means that things could turn out either worse or better than we expect and that the range of possible outcomes will expand. We all instinctively loathe uncertainty, even when we understand that it is two-sided, meaning that it can bring not just bad luck but sometimes good. Uncertainty is stressful. We make fresh economic decisions every day based on our expectations about the future. And the wrong decision is only going to get easier to make. When economic uncertainty increases, so do the risks associated with making the wrong decision. The forces acting on the economy will produce more frequent and larger fluctuations in employment, inflation, house prices, interest rates, and stock markets in the future. For example, when buying a house, we will need to consider that the risk of losing our job, and therefore possibly losing the house, will be greater than it has been in the past. In short, the more uncertain our future becomes, the more risk we take on when we make everyday decisions. How do people make decisions in the face of uncertainty? We base our decisions on our own average past experience, expecting the future to follow course. In other words, if things seem unusual right now, most of us expect that things will return to normal. But how confident can we be of that? The more uncertain we are, the more stressful that decision becomes. We may seek advice from family, friends, or experts to relieve the stress of the unknown. Experts are a special breed. They dont form expectations like the rest of us do; they make forecasts based on a much wider information base, including an understanding of economics, reams of data, and computer-driven models to predict outcomes. They spend all day trying to understand these things, while the rest of us do our regular jobs and try to understand the world on evenings and weekends. We read newspapers, books, search the web, or watch business news shows to access a wide array of experts to help us understand how the world works. There are many experts on the economy, and even more opinions than there are experts. There is too much information available to us on the economy, much of it loud, excessively confident, and contradictory besides. Experts arent always right. And there are things experts just cant know. During my time as governor of the Bank of Canada, I made a habit of being honest about uncertainty in our economic outlook. This is especially important after the economy is hit by a significant disturbance, as economic models can easily lead us astray. A good example was the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed. Canadian exports fell dramatically and the situation was made even more difficult by a rising Canadian dollar, which eventually broke above parity in 2011, forcing many Canadian export companies out of business. As the dollar moved steadily lower in the next few years, economists expected Canadian exports to recover. This forecast was wrong because so many of the export companies no longer existed. Economists models were simply not equipped to account for company destruction on such a scale. This experience illustrated perfectly that economic forecasts should always be interpreted as the midpoint of a range of possible outcomes--sometimes a wide range of possible outcomes. A forecast is only an experts guess, usually supported by models based on historical data. Economists are a lot like scientists in that we take in a lot of information and come up with an hypothesis for how the economy works. But while a scientist can test an hypothesis in the lab, economists and central bankers can only develop models based on past behaviour. As a consequence, those models work best when the future resembles the past. This book was written in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a case study in extreme economic uncertainty. From my vantage point, the situation looked and felt like chaos. For several weeks in spring 2020, my life consisted of an erratic and relentless sequence of virtual meetings, at all hours of the day, all taken from my rarely used home office using an internet connection of questionable reliability. Financial market programs and monetary policy tools were deployed on the fly, with most of us guided by instincts rather than actual data. Whenever something extreme happens to the economy like that, economists are immediately called upon to opine on what it may mean for the future. Personally, I had very little confidence in our ability to predict how the pandemic would affect the global economy, and yet, as usual, confident forecasts about the future were not in short supply. The vast majority were predicting a major economic convulsion, one that would last for a long time. I was skeptical. Perhaps it was my sunny disposition rising to the surface, but I had the sense that economies would show some resilience. The situation reminded me of September 11, 2001, and the confident pronouncements in the wake of that event, some that very day. "People will never travel again," said some economists. "The global economy will see a deep and prolonged recession," said many. I was chief economist at Export Development Canada (EDC) at the time, and I still remember wrestling with forecast uncertainty then. As it turned out, we realized that uncertainty itself was the most useful insight. We called our forecast update "The New Age of Uncertainty," to acknowledge that the future may never be as certain as it had seemed in the past. I carried a copy of John Kenneth Galbraiths 1977 book The Age of Uncertainty with me as a prop for the next few weeks as I delivered some twenty public speeches setting out our thinking on the future. We did not call for a global recession but said that increased uncertainty would throw sand in the wheels of international business. Business risk would be higher in a world in which the risk of terrorism was ever-present, and companies would adapt. For the record, the world economy did not experience a recession after 9/11; it picked up speed. Galbraiths book was written during 1973 to 1977, a time of great uncertainty for the economics profession as the concept of "normal" was being upended. The arrival of the baby boom generation in the global workforce was disrupting labour markets. The price of oil sky-rocketed in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, creating convulsions in oil-importing countries. The international monetary system in place since the end of World War II--under which most national currencies were fixed against the U.S. dollar, which was locked to a fixed price of gold--broke down, and exchange-rate volatility erupted. These were gigantic shocks to the world economy and represented a fundamental shift in what previously had been regarded as "normal." What emerged was a combination of rising inflation and rising unemployment, an outcome the economic models of that era had never predicted. Clearly, something Details ISBN0735243905 Author Stephen Poloz Short Title The Next Age of Uncertainty Pages 304 Language English Year 2022 ISBN-10 0735243905 ISBN-13 9780735243903 Format Hardcover Publication Date 2022-02-22 Imprint Allen Lane Subtitle How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future Publisher Penguin Books Ltd Place of Publication London Country of Publication United Kingdom AU Release Date 2022-02-22 NZ Release Date 2022-02-22 UK Release Date 2022-02-22 DEWEY 330 Audience General We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:137598270;

Price: 58.97 AUD

Location: Melbourne

End Time: 2025-01-08T06:12:21.000Z

Shipping Cost: 0 AUD